22 MARCH, 2001: Every year, my friend Navarro and I do an Oscar bet. Nav lives in San Diego and is a fellow movie buff, so each year we email each other with our Oscar predictions and the person who gets the most wrong has to buy the other the DVD of his choice.
I don’t mind telling you that I’ve won this bet the last two years by a considerable margin (and, greedy motherfucker that I am, I had him buy me a couple of fairly expensive two disc special editions). I also have no trouble admitting that the streak might very well be broken this year, because I don’t have a fucking clue as to how many of these are going to go. There doesn’t seem to be much momentum behind many of these races, very few obvious winners, which has given rise to another round of bitching that 2000 wasn’t a very good year for movies (no, it just wasn’t a very good year for the kind of movies that the Academy likes to celebrate).
I am happy to report that there’s so much grousing and pissing about Miramax buying those “Chocolat” nominations that even I’m tired of talking about it. I’m also pretty pissed that all signs are pointing to this bullshit “Soderbergh split” really preventing this year’s best director from winning the award for this year’s Best Director. I guess this will teach him his lesson—only bring out a good movie every few years, like all the other Hollywood assholes.
My format for this column is simple and the same as last year: For each award that I care to comment about (some, like the shorts and docs, I haven’t seen; others, like, say, Sound, I just couldn’t give a shit about), I will; then my personal pick, and then my prediction. Very few of them will match up this year. Oh well.
BEST PICTURE: “Chocolat”, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”, “Erin Brockovich”, “Gladiator”, “Traffic”.
By now I’ve pretty much surrendered to the fact that the weakest film in this group that I’ve seen (I still haven’t seen “Chocolat”, and won’t, thank you very much) is probably going to win. “Gladiator” has the most nominations and the Golden Globe win, but everyone’s slack-jawed acceptance of it as the year’s Best Picture is puzzling. To be sure, there’s a groundswell of buzz for “Crouching Tiger”, and it might emerge as the big winner, which would be fine by me. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that “Traffic” is just too thoughtful and complex, with none of the easy answers that Oscar likes, and Julia Robert’s assured Best Actress trophy is probably the only award “Erin” is going to get.
MY PICK: “Erin Brockovich”
OSCAR PREDICTION: “Gladiator” (God I hope I’m wrong)
BEST ACTOR: Javier Bardem, “Before Night Falls”; Russell Crowe, “Gladiator”; Tom Hanks, “Cast Away”; Ed Harris, “Pollack”; Geoffrey Rush, “Quills”.
As I reported in my first Oscar column, our shitty hillbilly town got “Quills” for all of one week, so I didn’t see it; “Pollack” and “Before Night Falls”, in spite of their nominations, never made it here at all. So, I don’t feel right picking a favorite when I’ve seen less than half of the nominations and I’m not overly enthusiastic about the ones I have seen; a Crowe win would be fine by me (mainly in recognition of the great work he’s done in his last few films), and a Hanks win would not (borrring).
MY PICK: None
OSCAR PREDICTION: Russell Crowe
BEST ACTRESS: Joan Allen, “The Contender”; Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”; Ellen Burstyn, “Requiem for A Dream”; Laura Linney, “You Can Count On Me”; Julia Roberts, “Erin Brockovich”.
It’s not even worth analyzing. Roberts will win, and should.
MY PICK: Julia Roberts
OSCAR PREDITION: Julia Roberts
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, “The Contender”; Willem Defoe, “Shadow of the Vampire”; Benicio Del Toro, “Traffic”; Albert Finney, “Erin Brockovich”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Gladiator”.
Benicio was the early favorite, and still is, in my opinion. Some are saying Finney might ride Julia’s goodwill train into a win; I think it was too much her show, where Benicio held his own in a strong ensemble. Some also think Defoe might end up the surprise winner; some people are idiots (fine work, don’t get me wrong, but no way he takes it).
MY PICK: Benicio Del Toro
OSCAR PREDICTION: Benicio Del Toro
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Judi Dench, “Chocolat”; Marcia Gay Harden, “Pollock”; Kate Hudson, “Almost Famous”; Frances McDormand, “Almost Famous”; Julie Walters, “Billy Elliot”.
Okay, yes, I’ve only seen one of the four nominated films, but I feel strongly about this one, so I’ll comment and pick a favorite. Everyone agrees Kate Hudson’s gonna win it, but it unfortunately seems to me that her lineage is playing as big a part as her work in the film; I think McDormand’s was the quieter and more interesting performance, and she was equally good in “Wonder Boys”, so she’s my choice.
MY PICK: Frances McDormand
OSCAR PREDICTION: Kate Hudson
BEST DIRECTOR: Stephen Daltry, “Billy Elliot”; Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”; Ridley Scott, “Gladiator”; Steven Soderbergh, “Erin Brockovich”; Steven Soderbergh, “Traffic”.
Interesting how the “Gladiator” wave hasn’t really extended to this category; I’ve heard no one predict that Scott will win here, and I think it’ll only happen if “Gladiator” sweeps (in which case I’ll throw the television out of my window). Soderbergh should win, of course, and I’d be hard pressed to say for which film—I wish that he’d split his votes and end up tying himself (which would be the best moment of the night). But Lee keeps winning the other awards, and everyone’s predicting that to happen here, and while I don’t dislike him or his film, I just wish Soderbergh could take one home.
MY PICK: Steven Soderbergh
OSCAR PREDICTION: Ang Lee
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Cameron Crowe, “Almost Famous”; Lee Hall, “Billy Elliot”; Susannah Grant, “Erin Brockovich”; David Franzoni, John Logan, and William Nicholson, “Gladiator”; Kenneth Lonergan, “You Can Count On Me”.
I think everyone knows that they fucked up by giving “Chocolat” the Best Picture nom that “Almost Famous” should have got; this is where they make it up. I’ve read some chatter about Longergan picking it up, but I think his film was just too quiet and too low-key to pick it up.
MY PICK: “Almost Famous”
OSCAR PREDICTION: “Almost Famous”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Robert Nelson Jacobs, “Chocolat”; Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus, and Tsai Kuo Jung, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”; Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, “O Brother, Where Art Thou?”; Stephen Gaghan, “Traffic”; Steve Kloves, “Wonder Boys”.
I see this one as basically a two-way race between “Traffic”, a great movie that’s not going to get the awards it should, and “Wonder Boys”, a great movie that didn’t get the nominations it should have. “Chocolat” doesn’t have a chance, “Crouching Tiger”’s script is far from its most memorable element; and “O Brother” (unfortunately) doesn’t have enough widespread support (I’m not really sure why Roger Ebert thinks it’s going to win). “Wonder Boys” is my choice by a nose, mostly because it was ignored in other categories, but I think “Traffic” will take it as a consolation prize for Best Picture.
MY PICK: “Wonder Boys”
OSCAR PREDICTION: “Traffic”
CINEMATOGRAPHY: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”; “Gladiator”; “Malena”, “O Brother, Where Art Thou?”; “The Patriot”.
Like many of the evening’s technical contests (and Best Pic), this is probably a “Gladiator” vs. “Crouching Tiger” showdown. I’m pulling for and predicting a victory for “Crouching Tiger”; “Gladiator” was a little too dark, a little too muddy (and, as I never get tired of saying, a MEDIOCRE MOVIE). “The Patriot” was too disliked, “Malena” is too obscure (I find it alarming when I’ve never heard of a movie before it gets nominated). However, I’m still partial to Roger Deakin’s brilliant work on the Coen Brothers’ “O Brother”.
MY PICK: “O Brother, Where Art Thou?”
OSCAR PREDICTION: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
ORIGINAL SCORE: “Chocolat”; “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”, “Gladiator”, “Malena”; “The Patriot”.
I’m including this one because I think this is the category that pisses me off the most. “The Patriot” is one of the worst scores of the year, another push-button bullshit John Williams score; “Chocolat”—who cares?; “Malena”—what?; and then we’re down to “Gladiator” and “Crouching Tiger” again. “Crouching Tiger” will probably take it, and in this weak category, it is the best—Tan Dun’s elegant, exciting score, with beautiful cello work by Yo-Yo Ma, perfectly complemented that fine film.
MY PICK: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
OSCAR PREDICTION: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
And that’s about the best I can do. I usually do a nice Oscar wrap-up where I gloat about how many I got right. This year, I’m not so sure.