13 MARCH, 2002: This year’s Oscar race is booooo-rrrrrring. Sorry, but it’s true. This is a year that saw breath-taking leaps of film faith in style and form ("Memento", "Mulholland Drive", "Vanilla Sky"), brilliantly offbeat genre pieces ("The Royal Tenenbaums", "A.I.", "Ocean’s Eleven"), and harsh, gritty, tough character dramas ("Monster’s Ball", "Black Hawk Down"). And, yes, almost all of those films were thrown a bone--an acting nomination, screenplay recognition, even a couple of Best Directors-but the films that were singled out for broad, sweeping nominations, including Best Picture, are not particularly exciting.

I’m sorry, but "A Beautiful Mind" is not a great movie. "In The Bedroom" is not a great movie, and neither is "Gosford Park". And no matter what everyone else on the face of the fucking earth insists, "Moulin Rouge" is far, far, far from a great movie-in fact, it’s quite a bad one. And I still haven’t seen "The Lord of The Rings", and I’m not apologizing for it anymore. I’m sure it’s a fine film, but the fact that it’s been out three months and I still haven’t been able to motivate myself to see it probably means something.

So the nominations are mostly snoozers. Will the ceremony be entertaining? Doubtful. Sting and Paul McCartney will probably perform their Best Original Song nominees, which will be good, but Enya and Randy Newman are also nominated, so never fucking mind. And Whoopi Goldberg’s presence as host doesn’t exactly lift my spirits. She always seems like a pushy aunt trying to run the family talent show when she hosts, and she stopped being funny about six years ago. Why didn’t they ask Steve Martin back? Hell, I’d take tired-ass Billy Crystal again. Of course, I’m the one guy who loved Letterman on the Oscars back in ’95, so what the fuck do I know.

At any rate. Here’s my glance at each of the categories that are interesting to me, with a pick, a prediction, and (when necessary) who should be pissed they got left out. I’m not standing tall by these predictions this year-I’m fairly clueless as to who’s gonna win, and I’m predicting that Navarro in San Diego may break my three-year winning streak this year in our annual Oscar bet.

BEST PICTURE: "A Beautiful Mind"; "Gosford Park"; "In The Bedroom"; "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring"; "Moulin Rouge".

The first three films are all highly overrated--good but not great, certainly not worth the praise that was shoveled onto them by desperate critics and pundits towards the end of the year. Haven’t seen "Lord of the Rings". Hated "Moulin Rouge." Sigh…. I guess "In The Bedroom" was the best of this bunch, but not by much. The Oscar’ll go to "Mind", however, since only "Rings" has more nominations but sci-fi/fantasy doesn’t get Oscar respect.

MY PICK: "In The Bedroom". MY PREDICTION: "A Beautiful Mind". LEFT OUT: "The Royal Tenenbaums", "Memento", "Monster’s Ball", "Black Hawk Down".

BEST DIRECTOR: Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"; Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"; Robert Altman, "Gosford Park"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive".

There’s a couple more movies I really liked in this group, making it hard for me to pick a favorite. Altman’s my sentimental favorite, not because "Gosford Park" was particularly outstanding (it wasn’t), but because he’s one of the best American directors in cinema history and, like Scorsese, has somehow never received a goddamn Oscar. Scott had a strong year (I loved both "Black Hawk Down" and "Hannibal"), and "Black Hawk" was the highest movie on my year-end list of these, but I’m gonna have to pick Lynch as my fave, simply because his film bore the most distinctive mark of its auteur, and no one else could have pulled off as deliciously weird a picture as he did. That, and a Lynch win would really piss off Bob Curtright, who hasn’t stopped whining about that nomination since they were announced. Howard will take it, however.

MY PICK: David Lynch. MY PREDICTION: Ron Howard. LEFT OUT: Chris Nolan, "Memento"; Wes Anderson, "The Royal Tenenbaums"; Steven Speilberg, "A.I."; Cameron Crowe, "Vanilla Sky".

BEST ACTOR: Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"; Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"; Will Smith, "Ali"; Denzel Washington, "Training Day"; Tom Wilkinson, "In The Bedroom".

Good category. As overrated as their films may have been, there was not one thing wrong with Wilkinson or Crowe’s work, and I really was a fan of Penn (though, admittedly, Billy Bob or Gene Hackman should’ve gotten his slot). Smith was terrific in "Ali", but I’m apparently the only guy who really liked that movie, and it’s critical and financial "failure" indicate his nomination to be reward enough. My favorite here is Denzel, whose tough, ferocious, ball-busting performance in "Training Day" was a career highlight (plus, he should’ve won in ’96 for "Courage Under Fire", or won Supporting Actor in ’93 for "Philadelphia". Or at least been NOMINATED either time). Crowe’s got a hell of a chance, however, and I’ve gone back and forth on this prediction (even revising it after finishing this column)—it’s the toughest call of the night. Crowe is in the more Oscar-friendly movie, but it’s been raked over the coals for inaccuracy and soft-selling, he just won last year, and, let’s face it, the man’s quite a dick. Denzel has it coming, and is much more well-liked, but the movie is pretty hard-core for the blue-hairs at the Academy. I think the large body of unrewarded work from Mr. Washington is gonna win the day.

MY PICK: Denzel Washington. MY PREDICTION: Denzel Washington. LEFT OUT: Gene Hackman, "The Royal Tenenbaums" (or "Heist"); Billy Bob Thorton, "Monster’s Ball"; Anthony Hopkins, "Hearts in Atlantis" (or "Hannibal")

BEST ACTRESS: Halle Berry, "Monster’s Ball"; Judy Dench, "Iris"; Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge"; Sissy Spacek, "In The Bedroom"; Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones’s Diary".

Can’t comment on Dench, as "Iris" hasn’t made it to Wichita yet. However, I haven’t heard anyone predict it will win in any of the three major acting categories it’s in. Kidman is a good actress, but not notable in "Moulin Rouge", and she should’ve been nominated two years ago for "Eyes Wide Shut". Some thought she’d get a sympathy vote, or the big-star-finally-gets-an-Oscar vote that Julia Roberts got last year, but I think Spacek’s gonna take it. Berry was better than her in "Monster’s Ball", but it’s her first "serious" movie, and Spacek’s basically a living legend. She’d normally be my pick, but I’m sick of comic performances not being given the same weight (so to speak, in this case) as dramatic ones, and I thought Zellweger was surprisingly flawless.

MY PICK: Renee Zellweger. MY PREDICTION: Sissy Spacek. LEFT OUT: Thora Birch, "Ghost World"; Naomi Watts, “Mulholland Drive”; Julianne Moore, "Hannibal".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jim Broadbent, "Iris"; Ethan Hawke, "Training Day"; Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"; Ian McKellen, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; Jon Voight, "Ali".

In all fairness, I can’t pick my favorite from this group, since, as mentioned, I haven’t seen "Rings", and "Sexy Beast" and "Iris" never played our fair city. The two performances I’ve seen, Hawke’s and Voight’s, were both fine ones, but clearly overshadowed by another actor’s work, and the nom will be perceived as recognition enough. Kingsley is supposed to be electrifying in "Sexy Beast", but it was probably not widely seen enough to win (though I could be wrong on this one-no one had supposedly seen "Pollack" last year either when Marcia Gay Harden won). No one’s talking about Broadbent, so I figure McKellan wins-it’ll be seen as a way to give a major win to "Rings".

MY PICK: n/a MY PREDICTION: Ian McKellan. LEFT OUT: Steve Buscemi, "Ghost World"; Brad Pitt, "Ocean’s Eleven".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"; Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"; Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"; Marisa Tomei, "In The Bedroom"; Kate Winslet, "Iris".

Connelly is the easy pick to win in this category, especially since, as everyone has pointed out, it’s a leading performance in the supporting nomination, so she gets plenty of screen time to flesh out her "supporting role". This is one of the few that I’ll go along with, since Connelly is excellent in the film and should’ve been nominated last year for "Requiem for a Dream". The "Gosford" girls will cancel each other out, Tomei already has one of these, and Winslet is apparently gonna get nominated every damn year until she wins.

MY PICK: Jennifer Connelly. MY PREDICTION: Connelly. LEFT OUT: Gwyneth Paltrow, “The Royal Tenenbaums”.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Bruno Delbonnel, "Amelie"; Slawomir Idziak, "Black Hawk Down"; Andrew Lesnie, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; Roger Deakins, "The Man Who Wasn’t There"; Donald M. McAlpine, "Moulin Rouge".

Is it wrong of me to pick a movie I haven’t seen? From all the clips and trailers that comprise the little I’ve viewed of "The Man Who Wasn’t There" (Thanks, Wichita theatres! Blow me!), I can only deduce that this is a gorgeous, cool-looking movie with amazing black-and-white cinematography by the brilliant Deakins. Give him the Oscar, for God’s sake. The other movies looked good too, but the Oscar will probably go to "Lord of the Rings".

MY PICK: "The Man Who Wasn’t There". MY PREDICTION: "Lord of the Rings".

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Gullaume Laruant and Jean-Pierre Jeaunet, "Amelie"; Julian Fellowes, "Gosford Park"; Christopher Nolan, "Memento"; Milo Addica and Will Rokos, "Monster’s Ball"; Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson, "The Royal Tenenbaums".

As usual, a much more interesting group of films than the Best Picture nominees, since these are decided by writers who know a good script when they see one on-screen. "Amelie" will win Best Foreign Film and that’s it. "Gosford Park" is directed by Altman and thus the screenplay is kinda negligible ("MASH"’s win notwithstanding). In any other year, the haunting "Monster’s Ball" script would be my pick, but it’s up against the only two films I liked more than it this year. My pick is "Royal Tenenbaums", but just barely, and I think the Oscar’ll go to "Memento", but just barely. I’ll be happy either way. All I have to say is this: Thank God no "Moulin Rouge" nomination.

MY PICK: "The Royal Tenbaums". MY PREDICTION: "Memento". LEFT OUT: David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive".

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Akiva Goldsman, "A Beautiful Mind"; Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff, "Ghost World"; Rob Festinger and Todd Field, "In The Bedroom"; Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens, and Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings"; Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio, Joe Stillman, and Roger S.H. Schulman, "Shrek".

The scripts weren’t the stars of the show for "Shrek" or "Rings", so they won’t win, and neither will "In The Bedroom", which is more an actor’s showcase than anything else. It pains me to my goddamn soul to predict that the witless, soulless cocksucker who wrote "Batman and Robin" and "Lost In Space" is gonna have an Oscar on his mantle, but the "Beautiful Mind" sweep will continue into this category, in spite of a disproportionate number of cliches and a third act that was in dire need of a re-write (Anybody that didn’t see the pens thing coming? Anybody that was genuinely moved by it? Anybody? Anybody?). My pick, of course, is my favorite surprise nomination: the witty, literate, charming "Ghost World" screenplay.

MY PICK: "Ghost World". MY PREDICTION: "A Beautiful Mind". LEFT OUT: "Black Hawk Down", "Vanilla Sky".

ORIGINAL SCORE: John Williams, "A.I.: Artificial Intelligence"; James Horner, "A Beautiful Mind"; John Williams, "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone"; Howard Shore, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; Randy Newman, "Monsters Inc."

I singled this one out because it’s maybe the worst overall category, with the possible exception of Best Picture. Not one but two scores from tired-ass John Williams, one from James Horner, my least favorite composer (with the possible exception of Alan Silvestri), more cutesy shit from Randy Newman, and then Shore, who I’ll pick since he’s done good work in other movies and I haven’t seen the movie, so it’s the only one of these scores I haven’t heard suck.

MY PICK: Howard Shore. MY PREDICTION: John Williams (for "Harry Potter"). LEFT OUT: Thomas Newman, "In The Bedroom"; Hans Zimmer, "Hannibal"; David Holmes, "Ocean’s Eleven".

ORIGINAL SONG: "If I Didn’t Have You," music and lyrics by Randy Newman, from "Monsters, Inc."; "May It Be", music and lyric by Enya, Nicky Ryan, and Roma Ryan, from "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; "There You’ll Be," music and lyric by Diane Warren, from "Pearl Harbor"; "Until", music and lyric by Sting, from "Kate & Leopold"; "Vanilla Sky", music and lyric by Paul McCartney, from "Vanilla Sky".

Blah. Exactly one good song in this one, the McCartney, which I think will win partly because it’s the one good song, and partly for the same reason Dylan won last year-because he’s a living legend. Two things that might prevent this: 1) A "Rings" sweep, but the idea of an Enya song winning an Oscar is nearly as repulsive as a Celine Deon song; 2) Everybody feeling sorry for poor Randy Newman, who’s been nominated something like thirty times and has never won.

MY PICK: Paul McCartney. MY PREDICTION: Paul McCartney.

In general, "Rings" will probably sweep most of the technical awards, (duh), though I wish they’d give "A.I." the visual effects award, for Teddy if nothing else. "Monsters Inc." and "Shrek" should have an interesting face-off for Animated Feature, especially since they didn’t nominate "Final Fantasy" or "Waking Life” (I think “Shrek” will take it, but I’m going back on forth on that one). I can’t believe the dumb-ass documentary fucks continued their losing streak and didn’t nominate "Startup.com".

My favorite nominations, some of which I’ve mentioned, were probably Renee Zellweger’s Best Actress nod, the Adapted Screenplay nomination for "Ghost World", the Original Screenplay nods for "Memento", "Monster’s Ball", and "Royal Tenenbaums", and "Memento"’s Best Editing nomination. My least favorite is a tough call, but I’ll have to say the runner-up would be the Best Makeup award for "A Beautiful Mind" (its gloppy prosthetics made "For The Boys" look expert in comparison), with the runaway winner being the Best Editing nomination for "Moulin Rouge". WHAT? Um, maybe Most Editing. The annoyingly hyper-active cutting was just plain exhausting, and may have contributed more than anything to the failure of that film.

So there’s my Oscar column, as unnecessarily long-winded as ever. More afterwards.